Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.412704 3.278725 4.499655 6.405578 9.420615e+00 1.422234e+01 2.294077e+01
2025-02-23 1.464302 2.264361 3.605076 6.186276 1.150105e+01 2.327899e+01 5.667604e+01
2025-03-02 0.935090 1.588155 2.834417 5.676064 1.305583e+01 3.572778e+01 1.444626e+02
2025-03-09 0.697264 1.295501 2.593650 6.131211 1.812886e+01 7.470419e+01 7.312637e+02
2025-03-16 0.529837 1.061531 2.351054 6.492553 2.489580e+01 1.694844e+02 8.422122e+03
2025-03-23 0.422716 0.908190 2.217349 7.182430 3.702668e+01 5.102608e+02 1.187401e+07
2025-03-30 0.341399 0.778959 2.074996 7.819516 5.514593e+01 2.027282e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.265716 0.631446 1.787322 7.523993 6.834470e+01 7.433143e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 0.206999 0.506948 1.502325 6.897818 7.767706e+01 3.074880e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.174903 0.446133 1.408600 7.325222 1.156242e+02 2.281898e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 0.154469 0.412166 1.398550 8.438400 2.105180e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.137989 0.384152 1.397650 9.814491 4.226385e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.119164 0.342892 1.318909 10.515773 7.753082e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.100125 0.293897 1.169627 10.108134 1.101711e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.083461 0.248016 1.008275 9.174247 1.316252e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.074491 0.227669 0.972299 10.001880 3.053981e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.066458 0.208068 0.927606 10.665310 7.643944e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.060508 0.194612 0.911060 11.949595 3.299620e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.055086 0.181409 0.887128 13.153092 2.426728e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.048572 0.161554 0.804835 12.590545 8.037116e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.042495 0.141943 0.712772 11.412640 1.445467e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.039043 0.132764 0.689591 12.213079 9.249540e+08 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.036829 0.128356 0.698949 14.334059 NaN NaN NaN